UK Diplomats Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Topple Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed documents reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military action to remove the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Reveal Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government show officials considered options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the files included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment rejected military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would result in significant losses and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no African state would support any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document adds: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.