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For a brief period, Trump appeared to adopt a resolute stance concerning Ukraine. Following issuing statements of "severe repercussions" in August if Putin continued hindering ceasefire negotiations, the former president finally enacted substantial sanctions on the Russian primary oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously affected the Russian leader's capability to finance his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, with his latest detailed peace initiative for the conflict, that was created by US and Russian officials excluding Ukraine's or European participation, he has clearly returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Aggression

The former president's plan would in practice benefit the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while leaving the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Although strong statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", much of the initiative actually weaken that very independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business past, Trump seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, like giving Russia a part of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the ruler. However, Putin's military campaign is not only about occupying a damaged area of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's apparent intention to destroy it so it ceases to functions as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the responsible government that Putin's increasing autocracy withholds them.

Border Surrenders

Although keeping in position the already separated Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would compel the nation to give up the entire Donetsk province. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its military have been unsuccessful to seize in more than a lengthy period of fighting, this giveaway would make Ukraine's defenses critically undermined.

The area is the place of the nation's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched military defenses that constitute a essential obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed path to the capital should he eventually choose to resume the war.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a action that would make renewed hostilities easier for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to cut the numbers of its armed forces from their present large number soldiers to a limit of six hundred thousand. Significantly, the initiative places no equivalent limits on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's campaign to depict Ukraine's chosen by the people government as radicals, the proposal states: "Any Nazi belief system and practices must be rejected and forbidden." Apparently to highlight this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a truce. However, the proposal sets no requirement that Putin risk his regime by allowing votes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative includes the Russian Federation commit not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its policy of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken comparable agreements in the history – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to honor Ukraine's borders in exchange for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a truce and a return of captured land in the Donbas to Kyiv – why should anyone believe Putin now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external protection assurances. Although the plan promises a "strong joint armed reaction" if the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the details vary from fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit alliance nations from positioning troops on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the security presence, reportedly headed by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Putin from rebuilding his weakened military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Reaction

Another supplementary accord according to sources would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any later "significant, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." This indicates a armed reaction. Yet unlike a strong national defense – the nation's best defense against future invasion – the credibility of the side agreement would depend on the dedication of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to react militarily to Russia's aggression, something they have {not