Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
A number of members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.