Are You Not Being Entertained? The Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring
A major talking point of the Premier League this campaign is the decline of goals scored in open play and the way clubs are netting increasingly from set-plays as an alternative.
Looking at how goals have been scored to the initial 11 matches last season, we note a drop of 39 goals in open-play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and penalties, leading to 13 fewer overall.
Examining the bigger picture, shot attempts teams are taking show a staggering drop of 370 in open-play than at this stage last season.
Even with the big increase in set-play finishes, there have actually been a mere two extra shots generated from these situations outside of spot-kicks, indicating how effective clubs are at devising strategies to net from set-pieces.
Scoring Rates Reveal a Story
Over 300 goals notched in 110 games so far works out at nearly 2.75 goals per fixture, if maintained for all 38 games might be the lowest for half a decade, since 2020-21 (2.69 per game).
But just 196 goals coming in open-play averages out 1.78 each match and is heading to be the smallest for 16 seasons, from 16 years ago (1.76).
That campaign is also the unique EPL season to experience scoring more often from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79).
What Clubs Bear the Most Responsibility?
In terms of scoring from open-play, Wolves have experienced by far the biggest drop, scoring only four in 11 games, 10 less than at this stage last season.
Outside of Wolves, the EPL's fall in open play goals is very much a London phenomenon, with five of the city's seven teams recording at least five fewer goals from open-play than the previous year.
In fairness, this is mainly because their scoring numerous scores at the early stages of the previous campaign rather than them really struggling to find the net in open-play this season.
Conversely City have experienced the biggest increase, with all but one of their 23 scores so far coming in open play.
Dead-Ball Dominance
Comparing the promoted teams with the relegated sides they replaced. Play-off champions the Black Cats have scored three extra scores in open play than Southampton managed in their first 11 games leading to relegation the previous campaign.
Regarding goals scored from dead-ball situations (not counting spot-kicks), Arsenal and Chelsea have recorded the largest rise, with the two clubs compensating for the reduction of five scores that they've produced in open play with identical figures from dead-ball situations.
United have netted twice as many goals from set-plays as they managed in the 11 games last season before Ruben Amorim took charge, while the Black Cats once more have been better at converting than the fellow red-and-whites they superseded.
Man City appear not to have received the message about scoring more from set-pieces, because they've recorded three fewer than the previous campaign, like Forest, even if this could be because of the change in style they're working to install.
General Tendencies
Six clubs – Arsenal, the Blues, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Tottenham and West Ham – have been the current campaign's leading trend-followers by recording fewer scores from open play and more from set-plays, while Man City represent the unique club to defy the pattern up to now by doing the contrary.
It will be fascinating to see if sides continue to depend greatly on set-plays as matches continue or if they rediscover their overall inventiveness and start scoring additional scores in open play as well.